THE ARMY UNIVERSITY, FORT LEAVENWORTH, Kansas – China continues to leech military and economic influence across the globe through soft and hard power engagements.

A continuation of the academic year’s Command and General Staff College’s Cultural and Area Studies Office panels focused on China as pacing threat and influence in the Indo-Pacific region, the discussion continued March 13 focused on China’s military strategy and if its goal is in fact global power projection.

CASO panels provide valuable warfighter education opportunities, Col. Jason R. Rosenstrauch, Deputy Commandant, CGSC, explained during his opening remarks.

“Events like this allow us to get a little bit better when we’re planning and trying to anticipate the moves and understand the underlying strategy of our adversaries,” he said.

This panel was a continuation of the INDOPCOM focused events that have covered a number of aspects of China as a pacing threat.

Moderator and CASO Director Dr. Mahir Ibrahimov explained the PRC’s objectives and a combination of soft and hard power means of expansion and influence, which was demonstrated on a map displayed during the event.

Panelists provided insight to Chinese shadow influence in Africa, diplomatic and economic presence (and impact of) in Thailand, and discussion on Chinese military strategy.

Lt. Col. Samual Short, Australian Army, CGSC’s Department of Joint, Interagency, and Multinational Operations, explained China’s military strategy, is frequently discussed as global power projection in as soon as five years.

However, its near-term goals are much smaller and closer to the command post than perceived.

Through the Chinese National Party Congress, conditions have been set to eventually become capable of being dominant force across the globe, Short explained, but that’s not until 2049.

Until then, the goals include sovereignty from countries directly impacted by their military presence and influence at their borders.

Peripheries and sovereignty are pillars of the Chinese military strategy, Short said, landing them on the list of the Peoples Liberation Army’s goals, which does not include global power project.

These two words, Short described, are what is being used within the governing bodies of China to create a clear path to future global power status.

“That’s important to understand because that’s their language when they’re talking about the 5-year plans at the Party Congress,” he said.

Short explained, China has spent nearly a decade reviewing, analyzing, and restructuring, focusing and organizing their military.

This intense internal review has sparked a drastic cultural change within the force making it more capable of being a global force, but in the future.

But China must first continue to stand its ground against geographic challenges with its neighbors like Russia and India pushing global dominance to the back burner for the time being.

Major pieces of China’s on-ramp to future global power includes continued soft and hard power influences in areas such as Africa and Thailand.

Ambassador David Shinn, former director of the U.S. Department of State’s, Office of East, Horn of Africa, and African Indians Ocean Island Affairs, highlighted China’s efforts on the continent.

“Africa is important in all of this [global power project],” Shinn said. “It’s a huge geographical obstacle between the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic and you’ve got to get over it or you’ve got to get around it”.

China’s presence mainly through peacekeeping operations demonstrates its understanding of the continent’s importance in it’s 5-year goal.

About 1,300 Chinese peacekeeping operators are currently spread across Africa, Shinn said, with a majority in the South Sudan region.

Although facing violence associated with the area, these peacekeepers are feathers in China’s cap to positive influence on the African nations, Shinn explained.

Beyond regional stability, China boasts arms support in Africa, albeit behind near peer threat, Russia.

China is not a leader in some areas of influence in Africa, but their presence demonstrates its desire to compete in every environment.

“China’s security engagement in Africa will increase,” Shinn explained, noting their financial backing could allude to regional building and establishment of military bases of commercial use ports as focus shifts to Mediterranean and Atlantic naval activities.

Similarly, their stake in Africa, China manages economic and diplomatic influence within Thailand, a country with a history of being caught in the middle.

Dr. Barry Stentiford, professor of history, School of Advanced Military Studies, discussed China’s role in Thailand through a historical lens.

On two previous occasions, Thai leadership has found themselves wedged between world powers like the Britain and France. Both instances the country avoided colonization, Stentiford explained.

Today, Thailand faces a similar situation finding dual sided influence from the U.S. and China.

The U.S has had treaties with the country since after World War II as well as regular military exercises.

China is the country’s top military supplier as well as economic bolster mainly in the vein of tourism.

They, too, have regular military exercises with Thailand.

As mentioned earlier, a key focus of Chinese influence across the globe is that of periphery sovereignty.

Thailand does not share a border with China or have overlapping claims in the South China Sea or other major economic movement area, Stentiford explained.

Thailand is in a space to be able to tip tables in favor of either country, adding to each’s ability to remain the global lead of power.

China’s military strategy continues to force the country to disperse its influence attempts into many different regions across the globe.

Based on information presented during the panel, it is clear China’s goals may be more centrally located, with global-scaled missions still on the horizon.

These strategy and goal timelines do not deter China from continuing to insert influence on many different levels and avenues in regions of importance.

The full conversation plus question-and-answer session can be watched on the CGSC YouTube or Facebook page.

This panel is part of a seminar series discussing issues of operational and strategic importance to the U.S., which CASO in coordination with CGSC, universities, think tanks, interagency and other partners conduct every two to three months, which is also live streamed on CGSC’s Facebook page.

The full event and past CASO panels can be viewed on the CGSC YouTube page: CGSC Intro Logo (youtube.com).

Additional photos of the event can be viewed on CGSC’s Flickr page: Command and General Staff College’s albums | Flickr.