NOAA

KEESLER AIR FORCE BASE, Miss. — The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters flew their last mission into Hurricane Milton Wednesday, their eighth missions into the storm since Sunday, collecting data to assist National Hurricane Center forecasters.

The storm formed from an area of low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico, and rapidly strengthening from a tropical storm Oct. 5 to a Category 5 hurricane 24 hours later.

Milton made landfall Wednesday near Siesta Key, Florida as a Category 3 and weakened to a Category 1 as it made its way across the state today, according to the National Hurricane Center. Milton, the third hurricane to hit Florida this year, had wind gusts of 100 mph recorded near Tampa, and knocked out the power for more than 3 million people.

Milton is part of trend of rapid intensification in hurricanes such as Helene two weeks ago, the 4th deadliest storm to make landfall in the United States since 1950, and others such as Harvey, Irma, Maria, Michael, Ida, Ian and Idalia in past years. According to the NHC, “rapid intensification” is when the maximum sustained winds in a tropical cyclone increase at least 30 knots (34.5 mph) in 24 hours.

With less time to prepare for hurricanes such as Milton and Helene, advance preparation is key and the data the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron provides to NHC is vital, potentially saving lives and property, said Lt. Col. Brad Boudreaux, 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron pilot.

He was the pilot in command for the mission into Milton Tuesday that departed from Keesler Air Force Base, Mississippi at 2 p.m. During his mission the hurricane re-intensified from a category four to a category five, which made his first pass through the eyewall a rough ride, he said.

“They key to everything we do here is to narrow the cone of uncertainty,” said Boudreaux, explaining this is the most probable track of a storm. “Our job is to provide weather information to the National Hurricane Center so that they can provide the best forecast so people can prepare.”

While satellites provide information about a storm, they do not collect detailed observations, according to NHC. To get this information, NHC tasks the U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft to fly through the storm to collect data to improve forecasts and coordinate necessary watches and warnings for impacted communities.

During a tropical storm or hurricane, 53rd WRS aircrews fly a WC-130J Super Hercules through the eye of a storm at about 10,000 feet four to six times. During each pass through the eye, crews release dropsondes, which collects temperature, wind speed, wind direction, humidity, and barometric pressure data. The crew also collects surface wind speed and flight-level data. This information is transmitted to the NHC to assist them with their storm warnings and hurricane forecast models in the Atlantic, Caribbean and eastern Pacific.

With their fleet of 10 WC-130Js, the 53rd WRS, works in conjunction with NOAA’s Aircraft Operations Center. They use two types of aircraft for their missions, the WP-3D Orion and the Gulfstream GIV-SP. NOAA uses the WP-3D similarly to how the 53rd WRS uses the WC-130J, and the Gulfstream flies as high as 45,000 feet to collect data in the upper atmosphere surrounding developing hurricanes. The information they gather is used for track forecasting and research purposes.

“We provide a lot of effort to collect this data for NHC so they can provide accurate forecasts to give the public the most advanced warnings so they can prepare and get their families to safety as appropriate,” said Boudreaux. “It’s best for communities to prepare in advance for extreme weather, water, and climate events.”

For information visit www.ready.gov or weather.gov.

NEWPORT, R.I. – The Naval Undersea Warfare Center (NUWC) Division Newport on Aug. 29 hosted Naval Meteorology and Oceanographic Command (CNMOC) Technical Director Dr. Joseph Calantoni as part of its continuing efforts to support undersea forces through the creation of a new tactical oceanography center.

Calantoni’s visit to the warfare center was after Division Newport Technical Director Marie Bussiere announced on Aug. 27 at the Southeastern New England Defense Industrial Alliance (SENEDIA) Defense Innovation Days the intention to create a National Center of Excellence for Tactical Oceanography, as well as a CNMOC Detachment, at the warfare center.

This initiative is part of a greater effort to take a scalable, enterprising approach to tactical oceanography.

“As part of interconnecting our workforce, Marie and I are embarking on building a common compute and research infrastructure between our commands. Think of this as the cloud on-demand for tactical oceanography,” Calantoni said. “NUWC will need access to all of the data my command is collecting and generating — weather and ocean forecasts, as well as autonomous vehicle data that we are sampling throughout the entire ocean. CNMOC needs these tools to understand how the ocean environment is impacting the systems that are being used by operators.

“This authoritative environment will enable concepts like digital twins, but for integrated oceanography plus undersea warfare (USW) systems.”

Tactical oceanography is the study and application of oceanographic data and tools to support military operations, particularly in naval warfare. It involves the collection and analysis of ocean and atmospheric data to inform decision making and enhance situational awareness for naval forces.

“Maneuvering in the environment is as old as warfare itself. Concepts such as obtaining the high ground in an environment have been used throughout the history of warfare,” Dr. Andy Greene, Division Newport senior technologist for Tactical Oceanography and Operational Environment Effects, said. “What we do at Division Newport is try to understand how the ocean environment is going to impact the systems we and the adversary employ and figure out where there are advantageous positions and tactics.”

Division Newport and the Undersea Warfighting Development Center (UWDC) currently are working with Commander, Submarine Forces (COMSUBFOR) to finalize a 60-month initial plan to enhance USW through tactical oceanography, Bussiere said. This will include working with numerous partners, such as the Office of Naval Research (ONR), the Office of the Oceanographer and Navigator of the Navy (OPNAV N2N6E) and the USW Division within the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations (OPNAV N97), as well as other local organizations.

“NUWC is uniquely positioned from both its responsibility to deliver USW technology and its proximity to the UWDC, the Submarine Learning Center, the Naval Submarine School, and the New London Submarine Base,” Bussiere said. “Along with the Naval War College in Newport and our incredibly diverse industry partners in the Northeast, we can evolve these important capabilities.

“We have the Graduate School of Oceanography at the University of Rhode Island and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution [in Massachusetts]— both top five schools in the country for oceanography — as well as UMass-Dartmouth and UConn Avery Point with their Oceanography programs. We also have a brand new NOAA headquarters being built on the waterfront next to NUWC.”

Bussiere and Calantoni also issued a call to industry at Defense Innovations Days, noting it can help by developing new environmental sensing technology, novel approaches to big data analysis and management, and cooperative approaches to talent recruitment and retention.

“We have a vision for undersea warfare in which we can leverage the environment to enable the operational commander of theater undersea watch floor to make smart decisions regarding unit deployment and achievability, as well as enable the unit to attain the environmental high ground to gain extra performance margins,” Calantoni said. “At a basic level, the undersea equivalent of using the terrain to one’s advantage involves oceanography, its impact on systems and platforms, and how that informs tactics and decision making.”

These tactical oceanography solutions, Bussiere and Calantoni explained, will come in two forms — material and non-material. Material solutions are any widgets, gadgets, tools or sensors that can fill a gap in tactical oceanography, while non-material examples are more using new insights with existing systems.

“One great material example is distributed temperature sensing. This has been used by the oil and gas industry and academia for 20-plus years. It leverages fiber optics to measure quantities like temperature and pressure along tens of kilometers of cable,” Bussiere said. “The challenge problem for government and industry is to determine how to best use and integrate the technology to support USW.”

As a non-material example, Calantoni explained how CNMOC is responsible for oceanographic models and measurements for the operational Navy. That information, under this way of thinking, can be used to determine how predominant oceanographic features in Navy operational areas of interest impact systems onboard a submarine and if those changes necessitate reevaluating tactics.

“This is where UWDC comes in and it truly becomes a team sport, where tactical oceanography reveals itself as a discipline that seamlessly integrates oceanography, USW system performance and tactics,” Bussiere said. “We did this and while the details are classified, we have successfully trained a number of crews with a new prototype set of knowledge, tools and training modules. This has really gained senior Submarine Force leadership attention and we are being asked to scale and expand.”

This effort, Calantoni and Bussiere explained, began in 2016 when OPNAV N97 created a new program focused on understanding the role of the ocean environment in current and future USW missions. The following year, then Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) Adm. John Richardson established Task Force Ocean, led by OPNAV N2N6E and Office of Naval Research (ONR).

“We took the initiative seriously and applied time and focus to determine what looked right,” Bussiere said. “We started experimenting in an effort to tie oceanography to tactics in the undersea domain, and developed the beginnings of warfighting utility assessments.”

This time and effort helped lead to a series of milestones, beginning in 2023.

“Tom Drake, head of ONR’s Ocean Battlespace Sensing Department — the designated lead for Task Force Ocean — recognized the impact certain lines of effort within Task Force Ocean were having,” Calantoni said. “He worked with the Chief of Naval Research (CNR) to ensure this work had a landing pad and an enduring set of resources. Thus, tactical oceanography was established as a National Naval Responsibility (NNR) by CNR Instruction.

“Having strong ties with UWDC has really helped us up our game. You know there’s a difference between making technological progress and making a warfighting impact — that’s where UWDC came in and kept us humble and honest as scientists and engineers.”

This past year, Calantoni said, COMSUBFOR provided further direction and guidance to warfighting and technical communities on tactical oceanography priorities to support USW war plans.

“My boss, Rear Adm. Ron Piret, is dual hatted as both the commander of NMOC and the oceanographer of the Navy, providing vision and resources for Navy oceanography,” Calantoni said.

“He and I talk about tactical oceanography and undersea warfare a lot, and in turn he’s made vertical cuts to entire programs not only to keep USW whole but also in order to grow it.”

All of this, Calantoni and Bussiere note, aligns with Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro’s Naval Science and Technology Strategy. Specifically, it speaks to having “a decisive understanding of the oceans” and ensuring “we leverage an advance to deliver warfighting edge.”

“Tactical oceanography is an old problem that we are tackling with some new approaches to create an enduring advantage,” Greene said. “At NUWC, we’re hiring oceanographers, acousticians, and ocean scientists as a priority.”

NUWC Newport is the oldest warfare center in the country, tracing its heritage to the Naval Torpedo Station established on Goat Island in Newport Harbor in 1869. Commanded by Capt. Chad Hennings, NUWC Newport maintains major detachments in West Palm Beach, Florida, and Andros Island in the Bahamas, as well as test facilities at Seneca Lake and Fisher’s Island, New York, Leesburg, Florida, and Dodge Pond, Connecticut.

Join our team! NUWC Division Newport, one of the 20 largest employers in Rhode Island, employs a diverse, highly trained, educated, and skilled workforce. We are continuously looking for engineers, scientists, and other STEM professionals, as well as talented business, finance, logistics and other support experts who wish to be at the forefront of undersea research and development. Please connect with NUWC Division Newport Recruiting at this site- https://www.navsea.navy.mil/Home/Warfare-Centers/NUWC-Newport/Career-Opportunities/ and follow us on LinkedIn @NUWC-Newport and on Facebook @NUWCNewport.

SANTA RITA, Guam — Maritime Safety and Security Team (MSST) Honolulu completed quarterly surge operations in support of the U.S. Coast Guard Forces Micronesia/Sector Guam’s Ports, Waterways, and Coastal Security (PWCS) mission in Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands from Aug. 31 – Sept. 18, 2024.

During this period, MSST Honolulu, augmented by MSST San Francisco, provided a law enforcement capable tactical crew to bolster regional security efforts.

“We proudly support Sector Guam’s PWCS mission and strengthen our partnerships with local agencies. Through our joint operations, we are enhancing maritime security and ensuring the safety of our regional waters. Our crews love their time out here. Collaboration is key to our success, and we remain dedicated to serving the Marianas communities,” said Lt. j.g. Emily Titus, team lead of MSST Honolulu.

Key highlights from the operation include:

• Joint Law Enforcement Missions: MSST Honolulu participated in multiple interagency law enforcement missions, including a joint shoreside patrol with Guam’s Department of Agriculture and NOAA Enforcement Division. Crews conducted over 13 hours of collaborative patrols, significantly enhancing interagency relationships.

• Surge Operations in Saipan: MSST personnel conducted surge LE operations in Saipan, completing 22 recreational boardings and engaging in four hours of joint patrols with Saipan’s Department of Public Safety.

• Operational Achievements: Completed 17 hours of joint interagency patrols.

• Interoperability Discussions: MSST Honolulu met with the Coast Guard Forces Micronesia/Sector Guam’s Enforcement Division and Guam’s Department of Agriculture to discuss interoperability and develop an operational plan for a 2025 deployment focused on marine protected species.

“The presence of MSST Honolulu as a force multiplier is invaluable. Their specialized capabilities enhance the Coast Guard’s ability to respond effectively to emerging threats and support interagency operations. By working alongside local partners, we increase our operational capacity and build stronger relationships that are essential for ensuring the safety and security of our maritime environment throughout the Marianas,” said Lt. Chelsea Garcia, the U.S. Coast Guard Forces Micronesia/Sector Guam, Enforcement Division chief.

Additionally, MSST Honolulu’s commitment to regional security was underscored by their involvement in Operation Irensia in June, where the team provided mission law enforcement support and training for visiting crews. During their June 2023 deployment to Guam, MSST Honolulu played a vital role in recovery efforts following Typhoon Mawar, collaborating with U.S. Coast Guard and U.S. Navy EOD Mobile Unit Five divers and Station Apra Harbor to remove obstructed buoys and conducting side scan sonar operations to reopen the port after a three-day closure. They also facilitated the first escort of essential supplies to the island once the port was operational again.

The ongoing collaboration and operational excellence demonstrated by MSST Honolulu and MSST San Francisco crews further solidifies the Coast Guard’s commitment to ensuring the safety and security of Guam’s waters and the surrounding regions.

-USCG-

About U.S. Coast Guard Forces Micronesia/Sector Guam

The U.S. Coast Guard Forces Micronesia/Sector Guam team focuses on maritime safety, security, and stewardship in Oceania. With a primary presence in Guam and Saipan and around 300 members across Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, the team maintains a strong U.S. presence in the Micronesia sub-region and adjacent areas, closely tied to local communities.

About MSST Honolulu

The Maritime Safety and Security Team Honolulu is a specialized unit of the U.S. Coast Guard dedicated to enhancing maritime security and safety in the Pacific region. With a highly trained personnel team equipped to conduct law enforcement operations, port security assessments, and emergency response activities, MSST Honolulu collaborates closely with local, state, and federal agencies to safeguard vital maritime infrastructure and natural resources.

(Editor’s Note: This story is part of a series on efforts by the U.S. Navy and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to understand the behaviors and migratory patterns of sea turtles in Pearl Harbor.)

Naval Facilities Engineering Systems Command (NAVFAC) Hawaii and NOAA Fisheries, also known as the Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center (PIFSC), have collected new data from its turtle tagging project, which is part of a 10-year Interagency Agreement funded by the Navy to support the recovery of threatened and endangered sea turtles. Efforts include in-water surveys and telemetry tagging to understand their movement, feeding, breeding and behavior patterns.

The NOAA and NAVFAC team spent six days of surveys between Jan. 16 and Feb. 14 tagging turtles early this year. Trevor Johannsen, marine natural resources specialist for NAVFAC Hawaii, worked with Dr. Alexander Gaos, the PIFSC research marine biologist who is leading the project.

“It took six trips to the field with Alex and his team and they scouted around the harbor looking for turtles. With their snorkel gear, if they saw a turtle, they were able to jump in the water and grab it, bringing it in,” explained Johannsen. “We then worked on the turtles on the dock–tagging them with metal tags on their flippers that are numbered and putting the satellite tags on as well.”

Johannsen said data from two turtles that left the harbor revealed a surprising journey.

“They went straight from Pearl Harbor to Molokai and Kooholawe, and then it went all the way over to Kauai and is currently swimming around Niihau. It’s really interesting to see where the turtles are moving,” he said. “They traveled much further than we expected: traveling around the main Hawaiian Islands, and traveling out to the northwestern Hawaiian Islands.”

Johannsen said the team also discovered that the turtles like to wedge themselves into “resting caves” and in the process knocked off their satellite tags.

“But it won’t affect the data,” added Johannsen. “They are actually waiting for all the tags to stop responding before finalizing the data, which should be about a year from being deployed.”

Out of the 23 green sea turtles that were tagged at the beginning of the year, eight satellite tags were still transmitting data as of July 23.

According to NOAA’s latest progress report, although quantitative data are not available, the Marine Turtle Biology and Assessment Program has conducted in-water and basking survey around many of the main Hawaiian Islands and noticed turtles with the fibropapilloma virus (FP) — a tumor-causing disease commonly affecting green sea turtles that cause cauliflower-like tumors to form on the skin anywhere on the body, including the eyes and mouth — within Pearl Harbor was much higher than in other areas. The cause remains unclear. Future efforts may be conducted to measure the frequency of FP in Pearl Harbor.

Nicole Olmsted, natural resources specialist for NAVFAC Hawaii, explained the importance of the telemetry tagging project and the partnership between the Navy and NOAA.

“It’s fostering a relationship between the two groups to share information and it promotes learning more about our endangered resources and will inform future management decisions,” she said. “The Navy is committed to protecting our natural resources in Pearl Harbor and all other installations across the United States.”

Upcoming analyses of individual and combined turtle home ranges will provide a better understanding and visualization of sea turtle habitat use within Pearl Harbor. Additional captures and satellite tagging will provide new insights into these and other aspects of sea turtle biology and movement ecology in and around the Navy defense sea area of Oahu which includes Pearl Harbor, the Pearl Harbor entrance channel, and the waters immediately south of the Pearl Harbor entrance channel.

For more updates on the turtle tagging project, information and reports can be found on the NOAA website at https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/pacific-islands/endangered-species-conservation/sea-turtles-pacific-islands-updates

NEWPORT, R.I. – Plans are in motion to establish a National Center of Excellence for Tactical Oceanography at Naval Undersea Warfare Center (NUWC) Division Newport.

NUWC Division Newport Technical Director Marie Bussiere made the announcement at the Southeastern New England Defense Industrial Alliance (SENEDIA) Defense Innovation Days at the Marriott Hotel in Newport, which was held Aug. 26-28.

Bussiere and Naval Meteorology and Oceanographic Command (CNMOC) Technical Director Dr. Joseph Calantoni presented a talk titled “Undersea Technology Innovation” while serving as two of the seven keynote speakers on Day 2 of the annual event.

“This will be the linchpin, the center of gravity for activity and accountability for the Navy in tactical oceanography,” Bussiere said. “As part of this, Joe and I are going to establish a CNMOC Detachment at Division Newport so that we can build and train a world-class workforce together.”

Tactical oceanography is the study and application of oceanographic data and tools to support military operations, particularly in naval warfare, Bussiere explained. It involves the collection and analysis of oceanic and atmospheric data to inform decision-making and enhance situational awareness for naval forces.

“Our vision is to inspire and enable a military and civilian team capable of providing knowledge and tools that safeguard the dominance of the United States Navy in the undersea domain,” Bussiere said. “Our mission is to empower undersea warfare forces to create desired operational outcomes through deliberate use of and insight into the ocean environment.

“Ideally, NUWC Newport, CNMOC, and our partners in this region and across the country will apply our collective imagination and expertise to advance the state of tactical oceanography to further improve the Navy’s tactical advantage now and well into the future.”

In addition to Bussiere’s presentation, NUWC Division Newport had a strong presence at Defense Innovation Days. The warfare center had a display set up among the exhibitors in the event space, where scientist and engineers interacted with attendees.

“One of the things we’re talking about with people is the Underwater Sound Reference Division, and explaining how Division Newport is an official designated institute for sound in water,” said Michael St. Pierre, an engineer in the Sensors and Sonar Systems Department. “This has been a pretty cool opportunity. It’s been interesting to see these small and large businesses interact here where everyone supports the defense of our country.”

Scattered on the table in front of St. Pierre were hydrophones and transducers. A small-class unmanned undersea vehicle (UUV) was perched behind, while other innovations like bio-inspired propulsors made with additive manufacturing and simulator relay boards and displays were scattered about the exhibit.

Those representing NUWC Division Newport also spoke about the warfare center’s efforts in four critical areas — communication, collaboration, innovation and demonstration.

“It’s been nice to talk about Division Newport’s role in national defense, and how it partners with industry as a part of the greater defense enterprise,” said Caitlin Kean, also an engineer in the Sensors and Sonar Systems Department.

The three-day event featured a number of distinguished guests and speakers. Carlos Del Toro, Secretary of the Navy, opened the morning as the keynote speakers on Aug. 27. The day also included addresses from Nickolas Guertin, Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Research, Development and Acquisition (ASNRDA); Lt. Gen. Eric E. Austin, United States Marine Corps (USMC) Deputy Commandant for Development and Integration; U.S. Rep. Seth Magaziner, D-RI; and Vice Adm. Nancy Hann, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Deputy Undersecretary of Operations.

In his speech, Del Toro discussed the various challenges facing the Navy and Marine Corps. He touched on specific global maritime hotspots, such as the Black Sea with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the South China Sea with China and the Red Sea with Iran.

“We face tremendous challenges in every corner of the world,” Del Toro said. “Each of you serve such an important role, and it takes all of us together for this to be successful.”

Del Toro highlighted all aspects of the defense ecosystem to emphasize the importance of working together. This included Sailors and Marines, international allies, industrial and academic partners and political leaders.

“We cannot do it alone,” Del Toro said. “To be the most effective force, we have to invest in enhancing our partnerships with industry and academia.”

These points were echoed by Guertin, who specifically focused on meeting critical shipbuilding needs, particularly deadlines for Virginia- and Columbia-class submarines.

“We have to hire 10,000 people a year for a decade to meet the demand for building submarines,” Guertin said. “It’s daunting and it’s going to take all of us, but I’m confident we can get it done.”

While a critical need, Guertin said, meeting submarine production deadlines goes beyond the physical workforce and entails examining each area of the process. This includes not just innovating systems, but revolutionizing the structures and processes used to design these systems. He cited as an example the submarine warfare federated tactical system (SWFTS), which helped revolutionize combat systems.

Guertin also addressed another aspect of NUWC Division Newport’s portfolio — torpedoes. He noted that heavyweight and lightweight torpedoes, as well as acoustic countermeasures and other torpedo defense products will be critical moving forward.

“As we press into the foreseeable future, especially related to the warfighting environments we may find ourselves in, we will need to get your creativity in order to do this work better,” Guertin said. “These efforts are foundational.”

Magaziner pointed to the future in his speech, but also spent a considerable amount of time highlighting Rhode Island’s rich maritime history. This includes NUWC Division Newport’s role as the birthplace of torpedoes in this nation. The warfare center traces its heritage to the Naval Torpedo Station established on Goat Island in Newport Harbor in 1869.

“We are proud to host NUWC and remain on the cutting edge of undersea technology,” Magaziner said. “Rhode Island is at the heart of the New England defense cluster.”

The three-day event opened Aug. 26 with a welcome from U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H. Guest speakers on Aug. 28 included U.S. Rep. Gabe Amo, D-R.I.; U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I.; Dr. Andrew Erickson, Naval War College, China Maritime Studies Institute; and Maj. Gen. Luke Cropsey, Air Force Integrating Program Executive Officer for Command Control, Communications and Battle Managements.

There also was a panel discussion on the urgent need for disruptive technology from an operational perspective.

NUWC Newport is the oldest warfare center in the country, tracing its heritage to the Naval Torpedo Station established on Goat Island in Newport Harbor in 1869. Commanded by Capt. Chad Hennings, NUWC Newport maintains major detachments in West Palm Beach, Florida, and Andros Island in the Bahamas, as well as test facilities at Seneca Lake and Fisher’s Island, New York, Leesburg, Florida, and Dodge Pond, Connecticut.

Join our team! NUWC Division Newport, one of the 20 largest employers in Rhode Island, employs a diverse, highly trained, educated, and skilled workforce. We are continuously looking for engineers, scientists, and other STEM professionals, as well as talented business, finance, logistics and other support experts who wish to be at the forefront of undersea research and development. Please connect with NUWC Division Newport Recruiting at this site- https://www.navsea.navy.mil/Home/Warfare-Centers/NUWC-Newport/Career-Opportunities/ and follow us on LinkedIn @NUWC-Newport and on Facebook @NUWCNewport.

Sailors and civilians across Hawaii were reminded last week of the importance of being prepared for a weather-related disaster. Hurricane Hone brought high surf, strong winds and rain to parts of Hawaii while Hurricane Gilma moves closer to Hawaii from the eastern Pacific.

Hurricane season in the Pacific runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are anticipating one to four tropical cyclones across the central Pacific hurricane region this season. A typical season has four or five tropical cyclones which include the following types based on the severity of the storm: tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.

According to NOAA’s John Bravender, Hawaii may face a greater threat from tropical cyclones from warmer ocean temperatures over time.

“One thing we’ve already seen going back several decades is a northward shift in tropical cyclone tracks,” he explained. “Technically, it’s poleward because it’s in both the northern and southern hemisphere. Tracks are shifting to higher latitudes as ocean temperature gets warmer. Warm ocean water provides the energy that hurricanes need to maintain their strength and to develop in the first place. Warmer oceans means more energy available.”

Bravender explained that this season’s low cyclone estimate occurred in part from the effects of La Nina, a phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation cycle when the ocean’s surface temperatures in the central and east-central Pacific are cooler, tradewinds are stronger, and the wind shear increases in Pacific so there is less cyclone activity, while cyclones in the Atlantic are generally more active at the same time.

If a hurricane posed a threat to Commander, Navy Region Hawaii (CNRH), tropical cyclone conditions of readiness (TCCOR) settings would be used to describe any storm with destructive winds, which have wind speeds equal or great than 50 knots, that occur within a specific time frame, explained Lt. Stephen Kyle Wheeler, the Meteorology and Oceanography (METOC) officer in charge and TCCOR liaison at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

“It starts with TCCOR five, which is 96 hours out from the onset of destructive winds, TCCOR four is 72 hours, TCCOR three is 48 hours, TCCOR two is 24 hours and TCCOR one is 12 hours and there is also TCCOR one emergency, which is destructive winds are occurring, so we go through those stages,” explained Wheeler.

When the TCCOR level reaches five, Wheeler attends a daily teleconference with all meteorological entities for CNRH with U.S. Air Force Capt. Mattew Schall, the TCCOR recommender for Region Hawaii and the chief of United States Army Pacific weather operations.

“We’re discussing the storm, what we think is going to be happening, what we’re forecasting, so we can all come to a consensus as to when to recommend the setting of these different TCCOR settings, and also where we think the path of the storm is going based off models. I’m a part of that team, so I can hear what the whole meteorological community is saying and I can go back to Navy Region Hawaii commander and give that expertise for the Navy assets and units for Navy Region Hawaii.”

James “Jay” H. Price III, the CNRH emergency management specialist and planner, stressed that preparedness starts with having a plan – before disaster strikes.

“Emergencies happen, often with little or no notice. By taking action beforehand you and your family can be prepared for an emergency,” he said.

Price explained the key steps to prepare for an emergency like a hurricane: Start with staying informed about disasters and hazards in the area, how to get emergency alerts including from the AtHoc System on Joint Base Pearl Harbor–Hickam (JBPHH) and understanding where to go if an emergency evacuation is necessary.

Once an individual knows the potential dangers in an area, the next step is to make a plan, explained Price. A family should plan how they will contact each other if they are separated and establish a meeting place that is familiar and easy to find.

The last step in the emergency plan is to build a kit. The State of Hawaii Emergency Management recommends that a household has enough food and water so every family member can survive for 14 days in the event of an emergency.

According to William “Will” A. Luna, CNRH region emergency manager who oversees programs at JBPHH and the Pacific Missile Range Facility (PMRF), Hawaii residents can directly support a disaster response.

“We need community members who are not already part of the first response team to get involved and help us prepare for and then more quickly recover from disasters,” said Luna “One of the best ways to get involved is to join a volunteer organization that is active in disasters. Known as VOAD (volunteer organizations active in disasters) these organizations often make a difference in how quickly a community can recover.”

Examples of VOAD in Hawaii include the American Red Cross, Team Rubicon, and the Salvation Army.

The last hurricane to pass near the Hawaiian Islands was Hurricane Douglas in 2020. It traveled just north of the islands and caused only minor damage. Bravender said he’s worried that the lack of visible damage from Hurricane Douglas made Hawaii residents complacent.

“That’s one of the things I really worry about, especially in Hawaii because we’re a small island in a big ocean,” explained Bravender. “If Douglas had happened in the gulf of Mexico, it would have hit land somewhere and if you are on the coast in one area and evacuate, it makes landfall a few dozen miles away and you see the damage and destruction it causes, you’ll say wow, I was lucky and I don’t want to go through that myself, so I’ll evacuate and I’ll prepare next time. Whereas, because we’re on an island, so it’s offshore, nobody sees the impacts, so I worry about people not taking these hazards seriously.”

Luna emphasized that keeping up with required trainings and thoroughly reviewing emergency plans for the office and the home gives everyone the best chance to safely navigate a disaster.

“To me, there is no such thing as too much training. However, for non-first responders, at a minimum they need the required annual training: Ready Navy. I’d also recommend they review their office or unit’s Emergency Action Plan (EAP). It should tell you exactly what to do at each TCCOR. At home: build a kit, make a plan, stay informed.”

The full list of volunteer organizations active in disasters (VOAD) for Hawaii is located at www.hawaiistatevoad.org.

The Ready Navy website is located at ready.navy.mil.

California’s weather swings between wet and dry periods so it’s critical for the state to have accurate forecasts so they can employ effective water management strategies.

To improve these forecasts and help residents of not just California, but several West Coast states, representatives with the 403rd Operations Group and 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, assigned to the 403rd Wing at Keesler Air Force Base, Mississippi, attended the Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations workshop Aug. 5-9 in La Jolla, California.

Reservists met with key members from the Army Corp of Engineers, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, NOAA, and the National Weather Service to discuss the role the Hurricane Hunters play in improving atmospheric river forecasts, which are crucial for managing California’s water reservoirs, supporting agriculture, and protecting lives and property, said Lt. Col. Steve Burton, 403rd Operations Group deputy commander.

These organizations are at the forefront of research and operational management of water resources in California, a state that relies heavily on precise weather forecasts to manage its reservoirs.

“FIRO drives the process changes for how water reservoirs are managed, so these reservoir managers are the end users of the forecasts that we improve,” said Maj. Chris Dyke, Air Force Reserve Command evaluator aerial reconnaissance weather officer.

The 53rd WRS is renowned for its daring missions into hurricanes, but their work extends beyond tropical storms. During the winter months, they shift their focus to atmospheric rivers—narrow corridors of concentrated moisture that can bring intense rainfall and cause significant flooding, particularly in the western United States. The unit began flying the Atmospheric Rivers missions in 2016, 2018 and 2019 as part of a research-based project, with flights added each year, until it became integrated into the National Winter Season Operations Plan in 2020.

“The data collected by these airborne missions is invaluable for improving the accuracy of weather models, especially in predicting the timing, intensity, and impact of these atmospheric rivers,” said Dyke.

“When these atmospheric rivers come on shore, they provide both an opportunity and a threat,” said Dyke. “Our forecasts help them make informed decisions about reservoir operations, which is critical for water supply management, agricultural planning, and flood prevention.”

California’s agricultural sector and urban areas are highly dependent on effective water management, said Burton.

“The state’s reservoirs are a lifeline, storing water for millions of people and agricultural lands,” said Burton, adding that the 80,000 farms and ranches in the state generate 58 billion in revenue.

Dyke added that improved forecasts have provided emergency managers more notice, about three extra days to prepare.

“Improved forecast accuracy enabled emergency managers to prepare for more than 600 swift water rescues during one atmospheric river event a few years ago,” said Dyke.

“The conference provided the 53rd WRS the opportunity to inform their agency partners about their mission, its impact, and then get feedback on how they can adjust the way they operate to improve the utilization of weather data,” said Dyke. “This conference marks a significant step forward in the ongoing efforts to improve atmospheric river forecasts and water management strategies.

By enhancing the collaboration between airborne weather reconnaissance and ground-based operations, the agencies involved are working towards a common goal: to protect communities, support agriculture, and ensure the sustainable management of California’s and other West Coast state’s water resources.